Public Policy Polling surveys of 24 Republican-held congressional districts indicate that shutting down the government may end up costing the GOP control of the House of Representatives in the next election.
For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party’s favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07. In four districts, the incumbent Republican fell behind after respondents were told their representative supported the government shutdown: CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02.
UPDATE: Poll aggregator Sam Wang: “If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats…”