Poll-Defying Pattern Predicts Sanders Victory

Poll-defying wins

Via Jonathan Greenberg on HuffPo:

[T]he Michigan upset is not, as America’s foremost poll analyst Nate Silver claimed, a freak event not witnessed since the New Hampshire primary of 1984, but part of a new pattern of poll-defying results that will, if they continue, carry Bernie Sanders into the White House.

…[H]ow accurate are all the other recent polls showing Clinton victories on the March 15th Super Tuesday sequel? If Bernie surpasses the polls in these states by as much as he just did in Michigan, he stands to score historic upsets in the important delegate-rich states of Ohio and even North Carolina.

If Sanders does nearly as well as the 41 percent average poll-to-reality discrepancy of the four state pattern described above, Bernie may even win Illinois and Florida next week. Should that happen, it will be Bernie, not Hillary, who will have become “inevitable.”

The reason cable TV talking heads are hitting us over the head with pro-Hillary polls is that her campaign has bet heavily on supposed “inevitability” and “electability.” Her actual record and policy positions are unappealing to progressives. Even mainstream Democrats are repulsed by her neocon hawk foreign policy, which Hillary now tries to avoid talking about. When cornered, she’ll fake it by parroting Bernie Sanders proposals in her stump speeches.

There has been an attempt by the media, and even the allegedly progressive website DailyKos, to declare Hillary the “presumptive nominee.” If they can narrow the choice down to Hillary or Trump, then the “lesser evil” narrative kicks in and Dem-leaning voters will be told to fall in line and abandon their idealism.

Why are the polls wrong? Cenk Uygur has remarked that when registered voters are surveyed, Bernie usually comes out ahead. But then pollsters apply a “likely voter” screen to the results, which produces a predicted win for Hillary. When the “unlikely voters” turn out to vote, the polls don’t match the election returns. That may be a too-simple explanation, but it’s as good as any.

All Bernie has to do is rack up at least 54 percent of the remaining pledged delegates. He needs a string of solid wins to do that, but it can be done.

More info:
Poll-Defying Pattern Predicts Sanders Victory
Here’s what has to happen for Bernie Sanders to win

  1. #1 by HildeBeest on March 11, 2016 - 4:09 pm

    “Bernie can’t win..and if he even gets close he’s gonna have an “accident”..silly old bastard..it is my presidency not yours you old dried up raspy bag of meat”…HildeBeest quoted when confronted on the reality of the BurnOut making his move…

    • #3 by Richard Warnick on March 13, 2016 - 11:28 pm

      I recall in 2008 Hillary’s New Hampshire primary results matched the exit polls in hand-counted precincts, but she beat the polls in machine-counted precincts. I don’t think it was ever investigated.

  2. #6 by HildeBeest on March 13, 2016 - 12:28 pm

    Bernie should be wearing a ballistic vest in my opinion. He doesn’t..if Trump shows can be ruined by Soros generated racial mobs..then the BurnOut can be whacked when his usefulness as a stalking horse has been exceeded.

    40 dead friends and business around me HildeBeest and Bill the Pedophile pervert. Better watch yerass out Burnout..

  3. #7 by Richard Warnick on March 14, 2016 - 9:54 am

    Latest from Public Policy Polling on tomorrow’s super-duper Tuesday primaries. Midwest is a toss-up:

    Open primaries::
    OH: Clinton 46% Sanders 41%
    IL: Clinton 48% Sanders 45%
    MO: Clinton 46% Sanders 47%

    Closed primaries:
    FL: Clinton 57% Sanders 32%
    NC: Clinton 56% Sanders 37%

    Open primary means voters not registered as Dem can vote. On the Dem side, there are no winner-take all states. Both candidates will gain delegates in all five states. Florida and North Carolina are the last southern states – advantage Bernie after tomorrow.

  4. #8 by Richard Warnick on March 14, 2016 - 10:17 am

    Another great Bernie ad. It’s about free public college tuition and how the “impossible” is possible when you have democracy.

    Compare to Hillary’s message of you can’t get anything for the middle class, so stop trying!

  5. #9 by Larry Bergan on March 14, 2016 - 6:48 pm

    One of the best comedic entrances ever!

    Danny Devito Endorses Bernie

    Danny DeVito + Bernie Sanders = recipe for a major win on Tuesday.

    Posted by The People For Bernie Sanders 2016 on Sunday, March 13, 2016

  6. #10 by Richard Warnick on March 16, 2016 - 2:42 pm

    Well, last night was disappointing. Instead of winning Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri Bernie lost. He got beaten in Ohio by 14 points, finished 2 points behind Hillary in Illinois, and lost Missouri by a tiny margin, 0.2%.

    Hillary now has 1,139 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 825, a 314-delegate lead (not counting super-delegates, who are likely to go to whichever candidate wins the majority of pledged delegates). Only half of the total of pledged delegates has been awarded so far, with about 2,000 more to go.

    Some commentators speculate that fear of Donald Trump is driving voters to Hillary. Some independent-minded voters in Ohio may have skipped the Dem primary to help Kasich win the Tea-GOP primary.

  7. #11 by Richard Warnick on March 16, 2016 - 3:10 pm

    Bernie Sanders Looks To Flip Superdelegates

    Because getting to 2,383 with only pledged delegates and Bernie’s current handful of super-delegates would be very hard.

  8. #12 by Larry Bergan on March 16, 2016 - 6:56 pm

    I’m not in the best mood today.

    Sanders was right; if enough people got out to vote, he would have won, but they didn’t. Hopefully we can do a lot better from here on out.

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