Posts Tagged electoral votes

Doing the math: McCain’s only path to the White House

The MSNBC map shows McCain’s dilemma (click map to view large). To gain the electoral votes he needs, even if he wins EVERY toss-up state, he still needs to steal an Obama state.

Likely and Leaning McCain: 163
Toss Up States: 89
Total: 252

Needs: 18 more electoral votes to reach 270

For all the bravado and spin still coming from the McCain campaign, the only way McCain wins this is by running the table on the toss-up states plus either a leaning Obama state like New Hampshire, or a significant upset in an Obama state like Pennsylvania.

It’s too soon to celebrate. But the numbers tell the story.

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Many different paths to 270

Polls would indicate Barack Obama has a comfortable lead in enough states that McCain has almost no chance of getting the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. But it’s not an impossibility. The Obama campaign is taking no chances. In addition to the states already under intense focus, they have expanded their ad campaign to Arizona, Georgia, and North Dakota–states expected to go red.

The past two presidential elections came down to, well, pretty much Ohio. This election is far different and the mix of states still in play, close to the edge makes it very much a horse race. No-one is calling it yet as the outcome could either be close or it could be landslide. It’s true that McCain has a tougher route to the win than does Obama, but there is still a route.

Even if the ads in Red territory don’t produce wins in those states, they could win supporters and tighten the gap. This helps both in support for the new president as well as looking forward to 2012.

Four days to go!

Map credit:

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